AWUS01 KWNH 180611
FFGMPD
CAZ000-181510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0022
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180610Z - 181510Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall is expected in the vicinity of a front
passing through the region.  Hourly rain amounts up to 0.75" and
local totals up to 2-4" are expected, which could lead to flash
flooding in terrain, urban areas, and near burn scars.

Discussion...A progressive upper level disturbance is moving
across portions of south-central CA at the present time.  In its
vicinity, precipitable water values are ~0.6" per GPS data. 
Inflow at 850 hPa is out of the west-southwest at speeds up to 50
kts.  When combined with ML/MU CAPE of 250+ J/kg, hourly rain
amounts are occasionally eclipsing 0.5".  A narrow thunderstorm
band is currently advancing across Santa Barbara associated with a
cold front at the leading edge of the upper level disturbance.

The expectation through 15z is for hourly rain amounts up to
0.5-0.75" into the topography on either side of the front, and in
lowlands near the front itself.  The mesoscale guidance has a good
signal for 2-4" locally, which is a potential problem for burn
scars and any areas that were becoming saturated from recent
rains.  There have been occasional drainage issues on area
roadways, and the guidance suggests that in the coming hours the
scope of these issues could increase.  Flash flooding is possible
near burn scars, in urban areas, and where ground has been
saturated in the terrain by recent rainfall.  The heavy rain
threat should be waning around 15z.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35481984 34801898 34591760 34021672 33661630 
            32651615 32361712 33241803 33881933 34382017 
            35172014