AWUS01 KWNH 200325
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-200800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0023
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1024 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200324Z - 200800Z

SUMMARY...Locally repeating rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected across portions of the OH Valley over
the next several hours. Wet antecedent conditions coupled with
high rainfall rates will pose a threat for isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A larger scale storm system continues to eject
gradually east across the OH Valley this evening which is
fostering broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Radar shows the best concentrations of this activity across areas
of eastern IN through central OH.

Ejecting shortwave energy interacting with a west/east oriented
stationary front coupled with the nose of a southwest low-level
jet of 40 to 50+ kts is yielding some organization to the
convection which over the last hour has been producing some
localized rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. This is despite
the fact that instability is rather weak with MUCAPE values of
only about 500 J/kg.

Over the next several hours, there will be concerns for some
cell-training as the convection advances off to the east across
especially areas of central and southern OH in association with
the advancing shortwave energy. The convection is already
generally aligned with the deeper layer steering flow, and the
latest hires CAMs support the nose of the low-level jet nosing up
across southern OH through northwest WV and gradually toward
southwest PA after midnight. This suggests some persistence of the
convection at least for the next several hours.

PWs of 1 to 1.25 inches are in place and the level of deeper layer
forcing will continue to foster some occasional 1 to 2 inch/hour
rainfall rates. The cell-training concerns may yield some 2 to 3+
inch rainfall totals going through at least 06Z, and given the wet
antecedent conditions, a concern will exist for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40858126 40688010 39887997 39478074 39148195 
            38968337 38988509 39238599 39758602 40288506 
            40688277