AWUS01 KWNH 200612
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-201210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0024
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley and Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200610Z - 201210Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue impacting portions of the OH Valley overnight while
gradually becoming more expansive into parts of the central
Appalachians. Cell-training concerns exist which coupled with wet
antecedent and elevated streamflows will likely foster areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows the advance of a
semi-organized cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms across
central and southern OH which will be gradually moving into areas
of northern WV and southwest PA over the next couple hours.
Meanwhile, recent convective development has been noted across
areas of central and eastern KY and into western and central WV.
All of this convection continues to be fostered by the arrival of
an upstream mid-level trough with divergent flow aloft combining
with a moist and strong southwest low-level jet of 40 to 50+ kts.

Despite very modest instability profiles (MUCAPE ~500 J/kg),
deeper layer ascent/forcing and shear coupled with the focused
corridors of 850/700 mb moisture transport (2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal) riding up along the west slopes of the
Appalachians should tend to favor convective sustenance overnight.
In fact, some expansion of convection is expected over the next
few hours across eastern KY up through central and southern WV,
and potentially northeastward into parts of the MD/WV Panhandles
given the strength of the warm air advection.

The latest HRRR guidance continues to insist on there being some
cell-training concerns with this activity, and with rainfall rates
tonight already quite high at 1 to 2 inches/hour, there may be
some additional 2 to 3+ inch totals where these convective bands
become aligned with the deeper layer steering flow.

Locally heavy rains have already occurred over portions of KY/WV
over the last 12 hours, and these additional rains overnight
coupled with wet/saturated soils and locally elevated streamflows
will likely foster some areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40727885 39657834 38267949 37508058 37018197 
            36888344 37228433 37828436 38278373 39148230 
            40258111 40708025