AWUS01 KWNH 050418
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-050817-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0029
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 PM EST Wed Mar 04 2026

Areas affected...southern Indiana, southern Ohio, portions of West
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050417Z - 050817Z

Summary...An isolated threat of flash flooding continues along the
middle/upper Ohio Valley.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a lead convective
complex generally oriented from near Columbus, OH to just east of
Cincinnati.  That complex was moving fairly quickly to the east
(around 30-40 knots) while producing only very isolated spots of
rain rates approaching 1 inch/hr.  Upstream of that complex,
isolated to scattered showers were developing within a weakly
confluent warm-frontal regime across southern Indiana, with
appreaciable 925mb convergence noted.  These showers were forming
over an area that received 2-4 inches of rainfall over the past 24
hours, with local FFG reduced to 0-0.5 inch/hr (and 1-1.5
inch/3-hr) in a few areas, ongoing moderate MRMS Flash responses,
and isolated reports of flooding/flash flooding over the past 3-6
hours.

Convective trends across the area are a bit uncertain. Instability
is marginal (MUCAPE around 250 J/kg) and forcing is modest outside
of weak vort maxima moving through the westerly mid-level flow
over the region and aformentioned 925mb convergence.  The presence
of slight isentropic upglide within the broader frontal zone
should continue to support a modest increase in convective
activity over the region through the next 2-4 hours.  Though
1-inch rain rates should remain isolated, sensitive ground
conditions from prior rainfall and wet soils/ongoing local flood
issues should prevent any recovery and perhaps result in isolated,
new instances of flash flooding.  Convective trends will be
monitored for a possible new MPD after 08Z or so.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...PAH...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40048219 39668064 38848068 38568253 38558569 
            38168769 39378699 39888559