AWUS01 KWNH 050513
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051111-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0030
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1213 AM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...north Texas, southern/eastern Oklahoma, western
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050511Z - 051111Z

Summary...Isolated, but locally significant flash flood potential
should continue through 11Z/5a central.

Discussion...Areas of convection continued to develop and expand
in coverage across the discussion area generally along an axis
from near Dallas north-northeastward into northwestern Arkansas. 
Most convection was fairly progressive in nature, though a few
supercells have materialized on an isolated basis from McCurtain
County, OK southwestward to just east of Dallas metro. These cells
were on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow aloft
and slow/deviant motion has been noted especially east of Dallas. 
This has allowed for local rain rates to exceed 3 inches/hr. 
Depending on local convective evolution, additional local amounts
of 3-5 inches of rainfall could occur.  Significant flash flooding
has already been reported with this activity - and more could
occur through at least the next 4 hours or so.

With time, mid-level forcing (stout - over Oklahoma/Kansas) will
lift away from the region.  Mid-level flow should lessen with time
as well - especially across southern portions of the discussion
area.  Meanwhile, convection should persist - especially along the
front in southern Oklahoma/north Texas and perhaps southwestern
Arkansas (per latest HREF/Hi-res Nam).  With the front stalling
(or perhaps slowly retreating northward) and slowing storm motions
additional localized 2+ inch/hr rain rates could occur beneath any
convective clusters that are maintained in this regime. Lower FFGs
in northern portions of the discussion area (northwest AR/eastern
OK) suggest greater susceptibility to flash flooding - though
slightly faster mid-level flow may offset this potential somewhat.
 Flash flood potential (locally significant) should continue
through at least 11Z/5a central time this morning.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37079271 36509195 34219320 32069594 32399842 
            33469828 35229696 36029545 36799419