AWUS01 KWNH 050600
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051156-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0031
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 AM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Missouri, western into
northern Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050556Z - 051156Z

Summary...Areas of training convection will result in a few areas
of 2-3.5 inch rainfall totals.  Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Areas of training convection are beginning to
organize along a general axis from Paducah/Evansville westward
along US 60 in southern Missouri.  This area was collocated with a
diffuse low-level boundary (separating mid-50s F surface temps
north from near 70F south).  Convection along and north of this
boundary was enhanced by 30-40 knot 850mb flow impinging on that
boundary, forcing ascent amid weak to moderate instability (around
1000 J/kg MUCAPE).  Convection is also embedded in 40 knot mean
flow aloft generally parallel to that boundary.  Training
convection is becoming more apparent per radar mosaic imagery, and
areas of 2-3.5 inch rainfall totals are possible as this axis
shifts eastward - generally along the Ohio River vicinity -
through 12Z/6a central.

These rainfall totals will fall on ground conditions that have
been dry in many areas (only isolated 1-2 inch amounts in
southeastern Missouri over the past 24 hours). FFGs are in the 2
inch/3-hour range across much of the discussion area and could be
exceeded on occasion where training is most pronounced.  Areas of
flash flooding are possible.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39148549 38848474 38068482 37168684 36538988 
            36699253 37209294 37909191 38339075 39058776