AWUS01 KWNH 051815 
NCZ000-SCZ000-060014-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1210
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...in and near portions of NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051814Z - 060014Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
expected to move through central & eastern NC into this evening. 
Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible,
which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...An outflow boundary is moving into the region, which
has led to new convective development across northern and western
NC.  This is occurring at the base of an upper level trough, ahead
of a shortwave moving into the Northern Mid-Atlantic States.  The
flow at 850 hPa is confluent here.  Precipitable water values are
1.75-2".  ML CAPE is 1000-3000 J/kg.  Effective bulk shear of
25-45 kts is organizing the convection.

Some of this region received heavy rainfall yesterday, which has
led to modest three hour flash flood guidance across northeast NC.
 With hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" possible,
the flash flood guidance should be exceeded on a widely scattered
basis.  Areas partially saturated from yesterday's rainfall and
urban areas would be more likely to flash flood.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36447875 36257750 36387569 35687531 35227547 
            34947582 34557646 34337734 33837784 33747860 
            33557903 33837938 35038030 35948071 36258024 
            36427975