AWUS01 KWNH 051837 
FLZ000-060035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1211
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Central & Southern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051835Z - 060035Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
expected to expand in coverage this afternoon.  Hourly rain
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5", which could lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...A disturbed weather area persists offshore northeast
FL, which has led to a zone of 850 hPa confluence across portions
of central & southern FL.  Precipitable water values are 2-2.5". 
ML CAPE is 2000-3500 J/kg.  Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, so
pulse convection is occurring.

The concern is that a combination of lake and sea breeze
convergence boundaries will drift east across the peninsula, with
convection trying to focus along these mesoscale boundaries and
within the confluence zone.  Storm motions could be slow as the
mean 850-400 hPa flow is roughly from the northwest at 5 kt.  The
maximum coverage of convection is forecast to be in the 21-22z
time frame.  Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are
possible wherever cells remain stationary, merge, or manage to
train.  This degree of rainfall would be most problematic across
urban areas.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29508100 29218092 28628048 28128045 27168000 
            26627984 26287999 25368032 25428100 26548185 
            27848183 28758186